Back in late 1995, I went for an interview at Cambridge University – specifically, Christ’s College. I’d applied to the college as one of the up to six universities that were allowed on an UCAS form. There was some debate as to whether I was Cambridge material – whilst my teachers thought that perhaps I had the smarts, they also thought I might not quite lack the motivation that a Cambridge student required. In short, I was lazy. Whilst I can’t comment on the former statement, the latter was (and is) most definitely true. I am incredibly lazy, and wouldn’t have fit into the Cambridge way of life at all 1.
During the technical interview 2, I was asked a question that I’ve subsequently come to realise is known as The Monty Hall Problem. The problem and its history isn’t worth duplicating here, but it’s worth saying that even during the mid-nineties, there wasn’t a universally accepted solution to the problem. The simple solution, which the interviewer provided to me in response to my slack-jawed, soundless staring at him, is counter-intuitive, and even threw my maths teacher when I returned to school the next day and drilled him about it. If I’d have been smarter, I’d either have known the solution, or otherwise been able to throw a number of questions/observations back at the interviewer – most significantly, as n (the number of doors) tends towards infinity, the probability of the prize being behind the other door tends towards 1. So with an infinite number of doors, the prize is always behind the other door. Mind-blowing.
But I wasn’t smart enough to calculate conditional probabilities or apply game theory to work out a decent answer. And that was one of the many, many reasons Christ’s College, Cambridge, decided to not make me an offer.
Like most modern, soulless workplaces, the office in which I work has a vending machine. It’s stocked with all manner of unhealthy crisp-/chocolate-based snacks, not to mention the odd flapjack or two. A nice lady turns up once a week to perform, amongst other tasks, a restocking of the vending machine. This is a two-step process: firstly, she checks all the remaining stock in the machine to see whether any of it is out-of-date; if any is, it gets removed and placed on the kitchen table for we office gannets to munch free-of-charge (depending on how precious you are about out-of-date produce). Secondly, she refills all the empty slots in the machine et voila, we have a fully-stocked, in-date vending machine.
Last time the vending machine lady came, she ended up leaving half-a-dozen packets of Hula Hoops, and a similar number of Bounties on the kitchen table. The Bounties were a day out of date. Needless to say, I risked it, and munched one of those bad boys down gratis. And that got me thinking. If we in the office collectively decided to not buy from the vending machine for a few weeks, and the vending machine lady acted according to her usual script, we’d end up every week with a kitchen table stacked with a selection of items from all the lines in the machine that had gone out of date. For free. We’d be getting free food from the vending machine, albeit a handful of days out of date.
But for this to work, we’d need to put some cooperative game theory to work, and all agree to not buy from the machine in the short term, delay our junk food gratification in such a way that in the longer term we’d all get a decent selection of free stuff. If someone broke this agreement and bought themselves a few flapjacks, say, there would be less chance that there’d be any out-of-date ‘jacks for all of us to enjoy FOC at the end of the week, post-machine-clearance. The Stanford Marshmallow Experiment meets the Nash Equilibrium at the vending machine.
Of course, as no-one in their right mind can delay flapjackian gratification for the period of time required to put this to the test, this theory is untestable, unfortunately. Insert knowing, pithy comment on the human condition here. Which is a real shame, as a free flapjack tastes a thousand times better than a 70 pence one…
- As an aside, both me and my good friend and all-round good egg Matt applied to Christ’s that year. Our plan, should we both gain entry, was for us to each strap a Marshall micro amp to our belts, plug in our guitars, and race around the hallowed halls of the college playing dirty Weezer riffs. Fortunately, the college dodged this particular bullet by offering neither of us place. ↩
- There were three interviews: the first with a college representative, the second (the technical one) with someone from the engineering faculty, and the third with someone else who I’ve managed to block out, probably due to my messing up the interview particularly badly. ↩
